Jamie Dimon must be pleased with how the US market is doing after reporting JPMorgan’s finest quarter ever. Nevertheless, he says he gained’t contact the S&P 500 or long-dated bonds at at present’s costs.
The JPMorgan Chase chief govt laid out a number of warnings on The Grasp Investor Podcast with Wilfred Frost. His feedback got here days after posting the biggest quarterly revenue in US banking historical past.
4 Warnings From the Prime of Wall Road
All through the podcast, Frost quizzed the CEO on his stance throughout shares and bonds, with Dimon issuing some telling warnings for basic buyers.
On the S&P 500 particularly, Frost requested whether or not Dimon was a purchaser at present ranges. Dimon dodged the index and stated he trades title by title, not the market as a complete. He confirmed he has not purchased any equities not too long ago, and when Frost requested if markets are pricing in an ideal final result, Dimon stated the situation seems to be good, however not excellent.
Collectively, these solutions level to a CEO who sees little room for error at at present’s costs, with out an S&P 500 purchaser in JPMorgan’s personal chief govt.
Frost then requested immediately whether or not Dimon would purchase long-dated authorities bonds. Dimon didn’t hedge.
“Personally, no. I might not be a purchaser.”
Dimon pointed to rates of interest as the explanation for not going with bonds. Even when inflation cooled to 2%, he stated, the 10-year Treasury yield ought to sit close to 4% to 4.5%. Brief-term charges must be close to 3.25% to three.5%, he added, and markets are already near these ranges. That leaves little upside left to purchase for, in his view.
Dimon additionally tied bond danger to swelling authorities deficits. He recalled how US inflation climbed from 3.5% to 11% by means of the Nineteen Seventies, a stretch when deficits additionally constructed up. He pointed to Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s name to scrutinize how inflation information will get calculated. Warsh’s personal Fed price hike odds turned sharply hawkish in June.
Lastly, Dimon flagged a wider set of risks. These embrace the conflict in Ukraine, stress with Iran, rising army spending worldwide, and the US-China relationship. He likened them to tectonic plates that would shift and mix unexpectedly.
“These dangers are most likely greater than different folks assume.”
Dimon acknowledged, nonetheless, that none of those threats may flip into an precise disaster. He stated the worldwide financial system has grown extra resilient and fewer energy-dependent. He pointed to how markets absorbed the Iran conflict oil shock earlier this 12 months. Nonetheless, resilience doesn’t take away the prospect of a sudden tipping level, he cautioned.
Report Income, Cautious Phrases
JPMorgan posted internet earnings of $21.2 billion within the second quarter of 2026, up 41% from a 12 months earlier. It marks the very best quarterly revenue any US financial institution has ever reported.
Fairness buying and selling income jumped 86% 12 months over 12 months to $6 billion. That helped drive a document financial institution earnings season throughout all 5 of the biggest US lenders.
Dimon referred to as the atmosphere almost superb for banks. He cited heavy buying and selling volumes and elevated asset costs, however nonetheless stated the run is not going to final without end.
Dimon’s skepticism echoes different market voices this 12 months.
Peter Schiff has argued the subsequent bond market crash warning may begin in Treasurys moderately than Bitcoin (BTC). JPMorgan’s personal chief govt is stepping again from shares and bonds close to document highs.
That raises a query for danger property broadly, crypto included. Will Wall Road’s warning ultimately meet up with the worth motion?
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