The US Greenback Index (DXY) trades close to 100.02 on Tuesday after final week’s sharp rejection from 101.50. The dollar is battling to reclaim the psychological 100 mark, in keeping with Buying and selling Economics knowledge.
Markets worth roughly 55% odds of a September Federal Reserve fee hike. On the similar time, coordinated foreign money intervention and falling oil costs pull the index in the wrong way.
Fed Hike Bets Collide With Yen Intervention
Fundamentals have turned dollar-friendly on the financial coverage aspect. July’s ISM Manufacturing Buying Managers Index (PMI) jumped to 55.6, its strongest studying since Could 2022.
Three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members additionally dissented in favor of a hike in July, when charges held at 3.50% to three.75%. Prediction market Kalshi costs a 25-basis-point September hike at 53%, with CME FedWatch exhibiting related odds.
Nonetheless, official strain works in opposition to the greenback. The US and Japan confirmed coordinated yen intervention after USD/JPY weakened to 40-year lows close to 164.
Falling vitality costs add to the bearish aspect. Oil dropped round 5% on Monday after Washington and Tehran agreed to restart talks, easing inflation strain.
Greenback route additionally issues past foreign exchange. A firmer dollar has repeatedly pressured gold and Bitcoin (BTC) in 2026.
US Greenback Index Weekly Chart Exhibits the Rally Stalling Beneath 102
The weekly chart frames the transfer inside a large macro vary. DXY topped at 110.176 in January 2025 and bottomed at 95.551 on January 27, 2026.
The restoration from that low stalled in July close to 101.50. That space holds the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement at 101.14, just under the Could 2025 swing excessive at 101.977.
Final week, sellers pushed the index again beneath the 100.30 to 100.60 resistance zone. The drop ended at an ascending trendline that connects to the January low.
In the meantime, the weekly Relative Power Index (RSI) sits close to 50. The studying gives neither bulls nor bears a transparent momentum edge.
| Degree | Significance |
|---|---|
| 101.98 | Could 2025 swing excessive, most important upside goal |
| 101.14 | 0.382 Fibonacci retracement |
| 100.30 to 100.60 | Resistance zone that should flip into help |
| 99.49 | Trendline and June swing low confluence |
| 99.00 | 0.236 Fibonacci retracement |
DXY Value Prediction Rests on the 99.49 Help Confluence
The day by day chart strengthens the bullish construction argument. An ascending trendline from the February low has now held twice, on Could 6 and once more on August 3.
The newest bounce additionally coincided with the June 17 swing low at 99.491. That confluence makes 99.49 a very powerful help on the chart.
Momentum tells a unique story. Every day RSI reads 38, beneath the impartial zone however not but oversold. The studying suggests sellers nonetheless management short-term momentum regardless of the intact development.
A day by day shut above 100.60 may open the trail to 101.14 after which 101.977, roughly 2% above the present worth. In distinction, dropping 99.49 would expose the 0.236 Fibonacci stage at 99.008, about 1% decrease.
The calendar may resolve the combat. ISM Companies PMI lands on Wednesday, and the July jobs report follows on Friday, August 7. The Fed’s data-dependent stance provides weight to every launch after final week’s GDP and PCE inflation knowledge.
Till both aspect wins the battle for 100, DXY stays trapped between hawkish Fed pricing and official promoting strain.
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