The authors of the examine examined roughly two months of five-minute bitcoin contracts. They discovered unusually massive orders on Binance within the last seconds earlier than settlement, adopted by speedy worth reversals in bitcoin.
The paper didn’t show merchants’ intent or straight set up that the spot-market orders have been positioned by the identical individuals holding positions on Polymarket. But it surely discovered that, excluding market makers, 93% of the losses in home windows categorized as manipulated fell on retail merchants.
“A guess the market handled as near-certain was overturned one time in three,” the authors wrote.
Polymarket didn’t reply to a CoinDesk electronic mail requesting extra info.
Prediction market considerations
Earlier than the July-dated examine, Variance Lover, a pseudonymous onchain analyst, raised related considerations, together with in a single intensive and detailed submit dated Could 21.
“By now, most individuals are conscious that market manipulation has change into a significant downside on Polymarket’s 5-minute crypto markets. The mechanism is easy: accumulate a big place on Polymarket, then transfer the worth on Binance in the course of the settlement window to pressure the market to resolve in your favor.”
An Axis Robotics contributor who goes by 郡主Christine on X, on Could 11 famous that manipulation in Polymarket’s five-minute bitcoin market was turning into extra extreme, citing “exact reversals in the previous few seconds.”