Glassnode’s newest on-chain report describes a bitcoin market wound tight, caught in a slender vary with the weakest participation in seven years whilst equities print document highs.
Excellent news, no response
July core inflation eased a tenth to 2.5%, the headline charge was flat, and the Efficient Fed Funds Price has sat unchanged since December.
Nonetheless, bitcoin barely moved. Glassnode flagged the muted response as the larger story:
“The response worries us greater than the discharge. Within the hours because the print, Bitcoin has barely bounced and equities have slipped.”
US equities hit a recent all-time excessive on August 7, pushed largely by the AI commerce, whereas bitcoin trades at roughly half its October 2025 peak.
Pinned between two price bases
Spot sits simply above the Median Realized Value at $63,000 and under the Brief-Time period Holder Price Foundation at $68,700, which means latest patrons stay underwater and fast to promote rallies.
The combination realized value close to $52,800 exhibits the typical coin nonetheless holds a revenue, so the broad market has by no means been pressured into loss this cycle.
Spot change quantity measured in cash has fallen to its lowest degree because the collection started in early 2019.
Sellers tiring, patrons absent
Barely half of circulating provide holds an unrealized revenue, and the Vendor Exhaustion Fixed has floor to a cycle low. Adjusted SOPR has been rejected at break-even 9 occasions because the October prime.
ETF web flows turned optimistic in late July for the primary time in months, however at a fraction of previous accumulation waves.
In the meantime, futures open curiosity now exceeds a full day of futures quantity, and Hyperliquid whales have closed web lengthy each day since mid-March.
Glassnode concluded:
“Skinny bids, heavy leverage and record-low quantity go away draw back strikes liable to overshoot.”