Bitcoin is holding round $122,000 in Wednesday’s Asian hours after setting a report excessive at $126,200 earlier this week, with some market watchers nonetheless anticipating a surge to a report $140,000 later this month.
Economist Timothy Peterson mentioned in an X put up Tuesday that bitcoin has a 50% likelihood of rising to $140,000, citing simulations that had been primarily based on information from the previous decade.
“There’s a 50% probability Bitcoin finishes the month above $140k,” Peterson mentioned in an X put up on Wednesday. “However there’s a 43% probability Bitcoin finishes under $136k.”
Half of Bitcoin’s October positive aspects could have already occurred, in response to this AI simulation.
There’s a 50% probability Bitcoin finishes the month above $140k
However there’s a 43% probability Bitcoin finishes under $136k. pic.twitter.com/LPhFr0mry9— Timothy Peterson (@nsquaredvalue) October 7, 2025
BTC is up almost 10% for the reason that begin of October, which has traditionally been one of the bullish intervals for all monetary belongings. The transfer has been pushed by report ETF inflows and exodus of cash from centralized exchanges.
Trade balances have dropped to a six-year low of two.83 million BTC, with 170,000 cash withdrawn previously month. That blend of regular institutional shopping for and shrinking provide has saved pullbacks shallow. The U.S-listed spot ETFs have added greater than $60 billion since approvals in January 2204, together with $3.2 billion final week, the second-largest weekly consumption on report.
Buying and selling desks notice that the trail of least resistance remains to be increased as “Uptober” performs out. Apart from, the outlook for S&P 500 stays constructive, supporting the bull case in BTC.
“Choices markets are pricing in a feral 5% probability for an additional 10% rally within the SPX into year-end, and it’s more and more troublesome to discover a detrimental catalyst to counteract that view,” mentioned Augustine Fan, head of insights at SignalPlus, mentioned in a Telegram message. “We noticed little brief liquidation on the current hole up, suggesting contributors are underweight with minimal danger exposures.”
Nonetheless, the optimism isn’t with out danger.
“The crypto market is navigating a fragile steadiness between sturdy technical help and important macroeconomic uncertainty,” mentioned Nick Ruck, director at LVRG Analysis. “Accumulation tendencies and institutional demand have propelled costs to new highs, however optimism remains to be uncovered to surprises from the Fed.”
The absence of latest financial information releases as a result of ongoing U.S. authorities shutdown has depriving buyers vital insights wanted to make recent allocations. Some observers are apprehensive that lack of latest information, notably inflation, could hold the Fed from slicing charges.
When FOMC and Magazine-7 earnings arrive later this month, the information will collide with a market already prolonged and leaning bullish. That can resolve if the following transfer is a clear run to $140,000 or a reset additional decrease.
BTC’s rally has paused previously 24 hours, due to profit-taking. Costs have dropped greater than 2%,, erasing a run-up since Sunday and knocking down XRP, Solana’s SOL, ether and Cardano’s ADA down as a lot as 7%.
BNB Chain’s BNB stands out with 1.5% positive aspects in the identical interval, the lone wolf within the inexperienced as its underlying ecosystem sees a flurry of recent exercise.
My lens: $125,000 is the battle line. ETF demand and whale withdrawals give the bulls a cushion, however the quiet from macro is not going to final.