Bitcoin reclaims 50‑week moving average: Is the bear market over?

Bitcoin closed the week at $81,159, trading above its 50‑week moving average of $78,788 for the first time in more than ten months. The price action represents the highest weekly close in four months and the first weekly close above the level since November 9, 2025.

Historical significance of the 50‑week moving average

Analysts note that in four of the five completed bear markets, the first upside break of the 50‑week moving average coincided with the definitive bottom of the bear market. The metric has therefore been viewed as a ceiling during downtrends.

Analyst perspectives

Galaxy Research’s head of firm‑wide research, Alex Thorn, described the 50‑week moving average as a strong historical indicator, while acknowledging that it is not infallible. Of 13 weekly crossings back above the level, two were followed by lower lows during the 2021‑2022 bear market.

Collective Shift founder Ben Simpson said a close above the average would be the final signal he needs to label a bull market, citing past gains of 700‑900% after similar breaks in 2017, 2020 and 2023.

Bitget chief analyst Ryan Lee emphasized that a single weekly close is insufficient; sustained trading above the average and the formation of higher lows are required to confirm a cycle bottom.

Other technical considerations

Trader Craig Cobb highlighted a different benchmark: a break above $83,000, which would eliminate a lower high on the monthly chart. He also watches the three‑month chart for a transition from a series of red candles to a green candle, followed by a break of that green candle’s high – a pattern that has preceded all‑time highs in 11 of 15 historical instances.

Market backdrop

Bitcoin has recovered from July lows near $57,000, aided by repeated liquidations that reduced leveraged positions and signs of renewed institutional demand.