Bitcoin closes above 50‑week moving average for first time in 45 weeks

Bitcoin closed the week ended September 20 above its 50‑week moving average for the first time in 45 weeks, suggesting the bear market may be ending.

Technical significance

The 50‑week moving average, the average of weekly closing prices over roughly the past year, is widely used as a proxy for Bitcoin’s long‑term trend. When the weekly candlestick closes above this line, analysts typically view it as a stronger signal than a brief intraday breach.

Historical context

Galaxy Research identified 13 instances since 2011 where Bitcoin closed a week above the 50‑week average. In 11 of those cases the market did not set a new low afterward, and each was followed by a substantial rally:

• January 2012 – Bitcoin rose from about $2 to near $1,200 (≈600×).
• October 2015 – Bitcoin rose from around $200 to about $20,000 (≈100×).
• May 2019 – Bitcoin rose from roughly $3,200 to above $69,000 (≈22×).
• March 2023 – Bitcoin rose from about $15,500 to roughly $126,000 (≈8×).

Two crossovers (December 2021 and March 2022) failed, with Bitcoin briefly moving above the average before falling back.

Current market snapshot

At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading near $81,450, while the 50‑week moving average stood at about $78,115. The price is roughly 6 % higher than the prior week and up about 29 % over the past 35 days.

Outlook

History suggests that staying above the 50‑week average could signal the end of the recent bear‑market low, potentially near $60,000, and open the path to higher prices. However, future performance will depend on Bitcoin’s ability to maintain the level in the coming weeks.