Bitcoin’s Bear Market Low May Be Over as 50‑Week Moving Average Is Reclaimed

Bitcoin (BTC) has risen about 30% since August and posted a 3.33% gain in September, keeping the cryptocurrency in positive territory for the month.

Key technical signal

On Sunday, Bitcoin closed the week above its 50‑week moving average (MA) for the first time since November 2025. This is the first weekly close above that level in 45 weeks.

Analyst perspective

Alex Thorn, head of firm‑wide research at Galaxy, noted that historically the 50‑week MA has acted as a strong confirmation that bear‑market lows are ending. In his research, 13 past bear‑market recoveries crossed back above the 50‑week MA, and only two of those were followed by a lower low, both during the 2021‑2022 decline.

Historical context of moving averages

The 200‑week MA has served as a floor in Bitcoin’s long‑term price history, with only 56 of 642 weekly closes falling below it. The 50‑week MA has often capped rallies until a drawdown concluded.

Recent price levels

• June 30, 2026 low: $58,525 (53.1% decline from the October 2025 peak of $124,824).
• Current price at press time: $81,341.
• Sunday’s weekly close: $78,786, which is 3.0% above the 50‑week MA ($78,786) and 23.9% above the 200‑week MA ($65,487).

Outlook

While the breach of both moving averages strengthens the case that the bear‑market low may be behind Bitcoin, analysts caution that further declines are still possible. Some expect a bottom in October, making the coming weeks critical for confirming whether the June low was the cycle floor.