Bitcoin volatility stays low as profit‑making supply approaches historic bear‑to‑bull threshold

Bitcoin (BTC) volatility has stayed at historically subdued levels, with analysis from Glassnode highlighting the composition of holders as the key driver.

Holder composition drives low volatility

Glassnode’s study of one‑month realized volatility found that long‑term holder supply is the strongest explanatory factor, outpacing other metrics such as illiquid supply, liveliness, absolute funding rates, and market capitalization. The firm noted, “The strongest driver of low vol is not market cap. It is who holds the coins.”

Current price range and analyst outlook

Bitcoin is trading near $78,000 after briefly reaching above $82,000 last week. Bitfinex analysts expect the current range to hold for the near term, describing the outlook as constructive but indicating that conditions for a sustained rally have not yet materialized. They anticipate continued consolidation with an upside bias rather than a confirmed breakout.

Supply in profit approaches historic mean

More than 71% of Bitcoin’s supply is now in profit, according to Bitfinex analysts. This compares with roughly 67% when Bitcoin traded above $82,500 during the May consolidation. The short‑term holder cost basis fell to about $68,400 in the summer. Analysts observe that the same nominal price levels now generate a larger pool of profitable coins, creating deeper latent sell‑side liquidity when the market revisits prior highs.

The profit‑making supply is nearing its historical average of 74.7%. Historically, a move above this mean has coincided with transitions from bear to bull markets.

Broader market context

Crypto market capitalization, excluding Bitcoin, Ether, and stablecoins, has risen by $51.2 billion since early September, surpassing mid‑August levels. Continued inflows into Bitcoin ETFs and growth in stablecoins are cited as supportive factors. Bitfinex highlighted upcoming events—such as the September 9 buyback and the September 11 CPI release—as potential markers for market sentiment, especially in relation to ETF inflows and the yield curve environment.