Bitcoin’s 200-week shifting common, sitting at round $61,700, is the road the market is watching most intently proper now.
That degree has marked the underside of each main Bitcoin bear cycle going again to 2015, and it held once more this week — no less than for now.
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A Basic Backside Sign — Or Simply A Pause?
The selloff dragged Bitcoin all the way down to round $61,300 earlier than patrons pushed the value again up previous $64,750, a restoration of greater than 5%.
Experiences say the rebound got here alongside information that Israel and Lebanon had agreed to a ceasefire, although the value motion itself was already being formed by a large liquidation occasion.
Over $740 million in BTC positions have been worn out in a 24-hour window, in keeping with knowledge from CoinGlass. Lengthy merchants took the majority of the hit, with greater than $623 million in bullish bets liquidated as the value fell.
Bear Flag Nonetheless Looms
Bitcoin’s weekly chart reveals a bear flag breakdown nonetheless in progress. The sample factors to a possible drop into the $50,000–$52,000 vary, and the setup has gained weight from rising buying and selling volumes on the draw back transfer.
BTC has to this point didn’t reclaim the higher development line of the flag. That failure retains the bearish state of affairs technically intact, even after Thursday’s bounce.
Some merchants are studying the transfer in another way. Analyst ZordXBT pointed to the lengthy decrease wick on Bitcoin’s candle as an indication that patrons got here in exhausting close to the lows. Dealer RidaaXBT known as for a short-term reduction bounce towards the $69,000–$70,000 vary, arguing that the liquidation wave could have cleared out sufficient near-term promoting stress to permit a restoration.
$BTC
Similar to that, BTC dumped to the 61k degree, which is almost definitely the native backside for now.
Anticipating a reduction bounce from right here, with a possible transfer again towards the 69k–70k area. https://t.co/q5VGRG2Id1 pic.twitter.com/83U7H7Phog
— Ridaa (@RidaaXBT) June 4, 2026
Not Everybody Is Satisfied
Not all market watchers are shopping for the optimism. Dealer Hitman42.eth warned that bulls could also be strolling right into a entice, suggesting the bounce might lure in new lengthy positions earlier than one other leg down.
everybody cheering this $3k bitcoin:native bounce is totally ignoring the graveyard they only walked over.
$600m in longs simply bought vaporized in 60 minutes flat. we tapped $61k proper above the february lows and bounced.
catching a falling knife after a structural flush is… pic.twitter.com/5QpE8Vv8Rc
— hitman42.eth (@ihitman42) June 4, 2026
The 200-week shifting common stays the important thing dividing line. So long as BTC holds above $61,700, the bear flag breakdown is just not confirmed. A convincing restoration from that degree would put $70,000 again in play as the following significant worth goal.
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Bitcoin has examined the 200-week common at main lows earlier than — in 2018 and once more throughout the March 2020 crash — and bounced sharply every time.
Whether or not this week’s contact of that degree marks an analogous turning level, or only a temporary pause earlier than a deeper drop, stays an open query.
Featured picture from Gemini, chart from TradingView