Polymarket lifts Israel-Iran ceasefire odds to 97.6% by way of July 18

Polymarket Ceasefire Ladder Reprices After Kuwait Injury Report Checks Israel–Iran Truce Confidence

Polymarket merchants are pricing a really excessive probability that the Israel x Iran ceasefire holds by way of the earliest rungs of its date-ladder, with the July 18 strike at 97.6% on $232,369 matched. The repricing comes as new regional injury studies add recent stress-test headlines to a market that has stayed low-volatility total.

Key Takeaways

• Polymarket’s main rung implies a 97.6% probability the ceasefire continues by way of July 18 (Sure 97.6% / No 2.4%).
• After a quick dip, odds snapped again larger, signaling merchants nonetheless count on near-term continuity regardless of the newest Iran-attack injury report.
• It is a date-ladder that runs by way of Aug. 31, with the market set to resolve by 2026-08-31 23:59 UTC.

A report stated Kuwait recorded accidents and injury to energy and water infrastructure, plus an oil facility, after an Iran assault. The incident provides a brand new headline threat sign within the area at the same time as markets proceed to commerce the query of whether or not the Israel–Iran ceasefire stays in place over particular dates.

Odds Curve & Liquidity Snapshot: July 18 at 97.6% on $232,369 Matched as July 22 Drops to 79.0% and Aug. 31 to 40.5%

It is a Polymarket date-ladder (price_ladder) the place every strike is its personal binary: “Sure” means the ceasefire remains to be in impact by way of that date, whereas “No” means it fails earlier than or by that cutoff. The near-term rungs present robust consensus: July 18 is Sure 97.6% / No 2.4%, whereas July 22 is Sure 79.0% / No 21.0%; farther out the curve steepens with July 31 at Sure 61.5% / No 38.5% and Aug. 31 at Sure 40.5% / No 59.5%. The most recent transfer is a +3.75 percentage-point leap (93.85% to 97.6%) on $232,369 matched, following an earlier -2.4pp downtick—value motion according to the abstract alerts of low volatility, steady consensus, and reasonable bullish momentum. Learn that curve as a term-structure view of threat: merchants are assured about days forward, however more and more not sure because the horizon extends towards the Aug. 31 decision window.

Watch whether or not the mid-curve rungs (July 25 at Sure 72.0% / No 28.0% and July 31 at Sure 61.5% / No 38.5%) tighten or widen; the unfold between short-dated and month-end strikes is the place disagreement about sturdiness is most seen earlier than the Aug. 31 resolve-by timestamp.

What Merchants Watch Subsequent on Polymarket: Mid-Curve Tightening (July 25/31) and Cross-Contract Hedges in Macro and Crypto M

Zooming out from the ladder itself, merchants typically sanity-check their positioning towards adjoining Polymarket contracts that seize second-order threat and potential hedges. In the identical advanced, 98.85% “No” in “Strait of Hormuz visitors returns to regular by July 31?” sits alongside bigger-liquidity sentiment reads like 72.5% “No” in “Will the U.S. invade Iran earlier than 2027?” and 78.0% on “Mojtaba Khamenei” in “Iran chief finish of 2026?”. For nearer-dated catalysts, “US x Iran Efficient Ceasefire by…? (2 week pause)” is priced at 50.5% for “August 31,” whereas “Iran publicizes withdrawal from MOU negotiations by…?” has “August 15” main at 23.0%—helpful cross-checks when the mid-curve begins to tighten or hole out.

Odds Development

By the Numbers

• Platform: Polymarket
• Market: Israel x Iran ceasefire continues by way of…?
• Contract kind: Value strike ladder: every rung has separate Sure/No; Sure means the spot value is above that USD strike at settlement.
• Decision window: Aug 31, 2026 (UTC)
• Standing: Energetic (open for buying and selling)
• Quantity: ~$232,369

Prime strike rungs

+3 extra strikes not proven

Associated Information