Notional quantity on prediction markets climbed sharply within the second quarter of 2026 and reached $113.8 billion, up 48.7% from the earlier quarter.
CoinGecko discovered that the momentum accelerated in June, when month-to-month notional quantity surged to a document $50.7 billion, which represented a 92% enhance from the common month-to-month quantity of $27.5 billion posted over the prior 5 months.
Sports activities Drive June Surge
In its newest report, CoinGecko attributed the spike to a packed calendar of main sporting occasions starting in late Might, such because the UEFA Champions League Remaining, Stanley Cup, NBA Finals, FIFA World Cup, and Wimbledon. The sports-driven exercise was significantly evident on Polymarket, the place sports-related contracts accounted for 81% of buying and selling quantity in June, versus 40% in January.
Regardless of this enhance in sports activities buying and selling, Polymarket’s market share declined quarter-over-quarter from 35.8% to 30.2%. Alternatively, Kalshi has managed to increase its lead after growing its share from 42.4% within the first quarter to virtually 58.9% within the second.
In the meantime, Rothera, the Robinhood/Susquehanna Worldwide Group three way partnership launched in Might, rapidly climbed to fourth place in June with $2.1 billion in notional quantity.
Wall Avenue and Large Tech Into the Race
Prediction markets gained momentum. Final month, Cboe World Markets launched Cboe Predicts, its new prediction markets platform that includes securities-based binary possibility contracts tied to the Mini-S&P 500 Index. The contracts, buying and selling below the symbols XSPBW and XSPBX, are already accessible by means of Interactive Brokers, whereas Charles Schwab is predicted so as to add entry within the coming months.
Cboe additionally stated extra brokerage corporations are prone to assist the merchandise over time. The contracts permit merchants to take a “sure” or “no” place on whether or not the Mini-S&P 500 Index will settle at or above a specified stage at expiration.
Moreover, the New York Instances reported that Meta is creating a standalone prediction markets app known as Area, the place customers would predict real-world outcomes utilizing factors as an alternative of actual cash. In line with the report, the experimental undertaking is a high precedence for CEO Mark Zuckerberg and will ultimately increase to real-money betting. The initiative follows Meta’s earlier Forecast app, a points-based prediction platform launched in 2020 throughout the COVID-19 pandemic earlier than being discontinued in 2022.
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