Market strategist Tom Lee believes the US inventory market will enter bear territory this 12 months, however not earlier than ascending to a brand new report stage.
In a brand new CNBC interview, Lee predicts that the S&P 500 will proceed to rally within the coming weeks after largely buying and selling in a slender vary thus far this 12 months.
However Lee warns that inventory market bears will seemingly come out in full pressure towards the tip of the 12 months.
“Our take is that we do count on that decline to occur when markets don’t reply to excellent news. So I feel we’re in a interval the place we had a bear market already in software program, the Magazine 7, and in crypto.
I feel that’s already taken out quite a lot of hypothesis. So to me, I feel our wager could be that markets are literally going to elevate via the tip of the month, that we’re going to really be optimistic for March, and perhaps hit 7,300. Later within the 12 months is once we assume a bear market may present itself.”
Taking a look at oil, Lee explains why value spikes are bullish for the inventory market.
“One, the US is an exporter of oil, so we web profit as an financial system from increased oil [prices]. The second is that different nations are importers. So the US not solely seems higher, however on a relative progress foundation, it ought to outperform, which suggests flows again into the US, and the third is, as we fear about world progress for all the explanations you described, when progress is scarce, folks purchase progress shares. The US inventory market is a progress index, so it’s popping out of the remainder of the world again into the US.
So I feel it’s a rotation story.”
At time of writing, the S&P 500 (SPX) is buying and selling at 6,672, whereas oil (WTI) is price $95.63 per barrel.
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