Exploring Decision Markets and the Future of Prediction Tools

Clément Lesaege and Devansh Mehta present a talk from the Ethereum Foundation covering the emerging design space of decision markets. These prediction markets are built to improve decisions rather than just forecast events. The presentation discusses asset futarchy, which measures the expected price impact of a decision, and metric futarchy, which forecasts KPIs conditional on specific choices. Additionally, the speakers cover opportunity markets to filter large decision spaces, risk pricing for long-term tail risks, and distilled human judgement to scale expert evaluation. The discussion highlights how prediction markets can serve as fundamental economic primitives for governance, funding, risk assessment, and prioritisation, building upon implementation work from multiple projects and researchers.