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50 Neutral

Evaluating Quantum and AI Threats to Bitcoin and Blockchains

Original title: When Could Quantum Computers or AI Break Bitcoin? An Updated Threat Window

Unchained 5:47 2 views on YouTube ETH −3.6% NEXO −2.5% BTC −3.5%

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Summary

An episode of Unchained hosted by Laura Shin explores the potential threats that quantum computers and artificial intelligence pose to blockchain cryptography, featuring guests Alex Pruden and Conor Deegan from Project Eleven, along with a warning from Ethereum researcher Justin Drake. Justin Drake warned that ECDSA could break before Q-Day, possibly within months. Meanwhile, Alex Pruden discussed how new error-correction results from Google and Quantinuum influence his updated Q-Day timeline, pointing to 2030 as the earliest possible date and 2033 to 2035 as a more likely window. Conor Deegan suggested that "A-Day" for artificial intelligence might already be present, arguing that the post-quantum and post-AI migrations involve the same underlying work. The discussion also covers why chains should begin migrating now without panicking.

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Key points

  1. Justin Drake warned that ECDSA could break before Q-Day, potentially in months.
  2. Alex Pruden places his Q-Day window at 2030 at the earliest, with 2033 to 2035 as more likely, influenced by error-correction results from Google and Quantinuum.
  3. Conor Deegan argued that A-Day for AI may already be here and that post-quantum and post-AI migrations are the same work.

Questions

When does Alex Pruden expect Q-Day to occur?
Alex Pruden places his Q-Day window at 2030 at the earliest, with 2033 to 2035 as more likely than not.
What did Justin Drake warn about ECDSA?
Justin Drake warned that ECDSA could break before Q-Day, possibly in months.

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