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71 Greed

Kalshi ETH Perp Volume: Paid Market Makers or Wash Trading?

Original title: Is Kalshi's $500M Day of ETH Perp Volume Fake or Just Paid For? - Uneasy Money

Unchained 1:09:58 1,000 views on YouTube ETH +0.3% ZEC +1.4% NEAR +7.4%
Thumbnail for Is Kalshi's $500M Day of ETH Perp Volume Fake or Just Paid For? - Uneasy Money 1:09:58

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Summary

Kalshi's ETH perpetual futures market recorded half a billion dollars in 24-hour volume while holding just $3 million in open interest. After Kalshi's crypto hires started a timeline fight, an analyst pulled public data and alleged wash trading. Kain Warwick and Taylor Monahan argue that paid market makers are a likelier explanation than a back room of bots. Austin Griffith asks whether that liquidity actually helps a prediction market find the truth. The discussion also covers Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's warning that AI labs are responsible for their agents. Taylor Monahan draws a Tornado Cash parallel about which humans answer for autonomous code. Other topics include Anthropic's new wet lab, Amazon blocking Meta's Muse assistant from shopping on its site, and Jev, a classifier model that decides in 200 milliseconds. Zcash is around $1,500, and NEAR suddenly has people paying attention again. Kain Warwick says a new model is dropping nearly every day, and keeping up now takes agents of its own. These topics span market liquidity, accountability for AI agents, and rapid model releases.

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Key points

  1. Kalshi's ETH perpetual futures market recorded half a billion dollars in 24-hour volume on just $3 million in open interest.
  2. An analyst alleged wash trading after Kalshi's crypto hires started a timeline fight.
  3. Kain Warwick and Taylor Monahan argue paid market makers are a likelier explanation than a back room of bots.
  4. Austin Griffith asks whether that liquidity actually helps a prediction market find the truth.
  5. The discussion also covered Scott Bessent's warning to AI labs, a Tornado Cash parallel, Anthropic's new wet lab, Amazon blocking Meta's Muse assistant, Jev deciding in 200 milliseconds, Zcash around $1,500, and NEAR attention.
  6. Kain Warwick says a new model is dropping nearly every day, and keeping up now takes agents of its own.

Questions

What was Kalshi's ETH perpetual futures volume and open interest?
Kalshi's ETH perpetual futures market logged half a billion dollars in 24-hour volume on just $3 million in open interest.
What did Kain Warwick and Taylor Monahan say about the volume?
They argue that paid market makers are a likelier explanation than a back room of bots.
What did Austin Griffith ask about the liquidity?
He asked whether all that liquidity actually helps a prediction market find the truth.

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